Saudi oil officials are alarmed by projections that ongoing conflict with Iran could push oil prices past $180 a barrel

Saudi oil officials are growing increasingly alarmed by internal projections showing that a prolonged military conflict between the kingdom and Iran could send global crude prices soaring past $180 a barrel by late April, a scenario that would threaten to tip the world economy into recession and undermine long-term demand for oil.

The concerns, first reported by Iran International television, reflect a deepening anxiety within Riyadh's energy establishment that the very commodity underpinning Saudi Arabia's economy could become a double-edged sword. While elevated prices would generate windfall revenues in the short term, senior officials fear that a sustained spike above $150 a barrel would accelerate the global transition away from fossil fuels, destroy demand in key importing nations, and trigger an economic downturn that would ultimately drag prices back down.

The projections are based on models that account for potential disruptions to shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly one-fifth of the world's oil passes daily. Any sustained closure or threat to tanker traffic in the waterway would immediately remove millions of barrels per day from global supply, a shortfall that no combination of strategic reserves and spare capacity could fully offset. Saudi Arabia itself ships the bulk of its crude exports through the strait, meaning Riyadh would suffer from the same chokepoint it depends on.

The alarm within Saudi energy circles comes at a particularly sensitive moment for global oil markets. Prices have already climbed sharply since hostilities between the two regional powers intensified earlier this month, with Brent crude trading well above $100 a barrel. OPEC-plus members, led by Saudi Arabia, had been gradually unwinding production cuts in an effort to stabilize the market, but the conflict has upended that carefully calibrated strategy.

For Qatar, the implications are both direct and significant. The Gulf state shares the world's largest natural gas field with Iran and maintains diplomatic channels with Tehran even as it hosts the largest American military base in the Middle East. Doha has long positioned itself as a mediator in regional disputes, and the current crisis underscores the urgency of that role. Qatar's liquefied natural gas exports, which have made it one of the wealthiest nations per capita on earth, would also be affected by any disruption to Gulf shipping routes.

Energy analysts say the Saudi concerns mirror those of major consuming nations, including China, India, and members of the European Union, all of which have called for restraint. The International Energy Agency has warned that a prolonged conflict in the Gulf could produce the most severe supply shock since the 1973 Arab oil embargo.

Diplomatic efforts to de-escalate the situation have so far yielded limited results, though several Gulf states, including Qatar and Oman, are reported to be engaged in behind-the-scenes shuttle diplomacy aimed at preventing a wider conflagration.