Trump Considers Limited Strikes on Iran, Hormuz Blockade for Nuclear Deal

US President Donald Trump is reportedly weighing options for limited military strikes against Iran and a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz as leverage to force Tehran into a new nuclear agreement, according to intelligence sources cited by OSINT analysts monitoring the situation.

The deliberations mark a significant escalation in Washington's posture toward Iran and come amid stalled diplomatic efforts to revive or replace the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, which the United States unilaterally abandoned during Trump's first term in 2018. Tehran has since advanced its uranium enrichment program to near-weapons grade levels, prompting alarm from Western governments and Gulf states alike.

Senior US officials are said to be divided over the feasibility and strategic wisdom of such action. Proponents argue that targeted strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, combined with a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, would demonstrate credible military resolve and compel Iran to return to the negotiating table under maximum pressure. Critics within the administration warn that any military action risks triggering a broader regional conflict, drawing in Iran-aligned armed groups across Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen.

The Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway separating the Arabian Peninsula from Iran, handles an estimated 20 percent of the world's oil trade. A naval blockade of the strait would carry immediate and severe consequences for global energy markets, with analysts warning that crude oil prices could surge past $120 per barrel within days of any confirmed military action.

For Gulf states, the prospect of open conflict between Washington and Tehran poses acute risks. Qatar, which hosts the largest US military base in the Middle East at Al Udeid Air Base and simultaneously maintains diplomatic relations with Iran, would face extraordinary pressure to navigate between its American security guarantors and its Gulf neighbor. Doha and Tehran share the world's largest natural gas field — the North Field — and any disruption to Iranian territorial waters would complicate shipping and energy operations for Qatari LNG exports.

Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, while historically supportive of maximum pressure on Tehran, have in recent years moved to normalize ties with Iran following Chinese-brokered diplomacy in 2023. Riyadh and Abu Dhabi have signaled they are not seeking a military confrontation with Tehran, complicating Washington's regional calculus.

No formal decision has been made, and diplomatic channels remain open. Iranian officials have not yet publicly responded to the reports. International observers, including United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres, have repeatedly called for a diplomatic resolution to the nuclear standoff, warning that military escalation would carry unpredictable and potentially catastrophic consequences for the broader Middle East.