International Agencies Warn of Prolonged High Fuel and Fertilizer Prices Despite Hormuz Reopening

Major international financial and energy institutions warned Monday that the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz will not deliver immediate relief to global fuel and fertilizer markets, cautioning governments and consumers alike that elevated commodity prices may persist for months as damaged infrastructure and disrupted supply chains struggle to recover.

The World Bank and the International Energy Agency issued assessments indicating that while the resumption of maritime transit through the strategic waterway marks a critical step toward stabilizing global energy flows, the physical and logistical damage sustained during the period of closure will take considerable time to reverse. Shipping traffic through the strait, which at its peak carried roughly one-fifth of the world's oil and a significant share of liquefied natural gas, has not yet returned to pre-conflict volumes, officials said.

Beyond crude oil, analysts highlighted the acute vulnerability of global fertilizer supplies, much of which originates from Iran and other Gulf producers whose export infrastructure was disrupted during the conflict. Agricultural economists warned that delays in fertilizer shipments arriving at key import markets — particularly in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa — could translate into higher food production costs heading into the next growing season.

For Gulf states, including Qatar, the economic reverberations carry particular weight. Qatar, the world's leading exporter of liquefied natural gas, saw its own shipping operations constrained during the Hormuz closure, and energy analysts say the full restoration of LNG contract deliveries to Asian and European partners will require coordinated logistical efforts over the coming weeks. Qatari officials have previously emphasized that the country's energy infrastructure remained intact, but acknowledged that route disruptions created delays for some cargo movements.

Oil futures reflected cautious optimism following news of the reopening, with Brent crude easing from recent highs but remaining well above pre-crisis benchmarks. Analysts at Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan cautioned that the market should not expect a rapid correction, noting that refinery shutdowns, rerouted tanker fleets, and insurance premium surcharges for Gulf-origin cargo will sustain cost pressures across the supply chain.

The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization separately flagged concerns about the knock-on effects for food security in import-dependent nations, warning that elevated fertilizer costs compounded by fuel price increases could erode agricultural subsidies and push staple food prices higher in vulnerable economies. Humanitarian agencies called on donor governments to boost food security funding in anticipation of increased need.