FAO Warns Global Food Prices Could Surge if Hormuz Blocks Fertilizer Ships

The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization has issued a stark warning that any disruption to fertilizer shipments passing through the Strait of Hormuz could trigger a severe contraction in global agricultural output, with the agency estimating that between 20 and 30 percent of worldwide fertilizer supplies could go undelivered if hostilities in the region escalate further.

The FAO warning comes as tensions in the Gulf intensify, raising alarm among agricultural economists and food security officials who say the timing could not be worse. The current planting season across major food-producing regions in South Asia, Africa, and Latin America depends heavily on timely fertilizer deliveries, and any prolonged interruption would cascade into reduced yields for the next harvest cycle as well.

The Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway separating Iran from the Arabian Peninsula, is one of the world's most strategically critical maritime chokepoints. Beyond its role as the primary conduit for Gulf oil and gas exports, the strait handles a substantial share of global trade in nitrogen, phosphate, and potash fertilizers produced by regional exporters including Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.

Qatar, through its state-owned fertilizer producer QatarEnergy and its subsidiary Qafco — one of the world's largest urea exporters — ships millions of tonnes of ammonia and urea annually through the strait to markets across Asia, Europe, and Africa. Any blockade or sustained threat to navigation would directly expose Qatari export revenues and global customers who rely on Qatari-produced nutrients to sustain crop yields.

FAO officials noted that global fertilizer markets have not fully stabilized since the disruptions caused by the war in Ukraine, which cut off significant volumes of Russian and Belarusian potash and nitrogen exports. A secondary shock originating from the Gulf would compound existing vulnerabilities in food supply chains already strained by climate-related production losses in key agricultural nations.

Food security analysts warn that the populations most at risk are those in low-income import-dependent countries across sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia, where smallholder farmers have little capacity to absorb price spikes or substitute alternative inputs. A 20 to 30 percent reduction in available fertilizer supply would likely translate into double-digit percentage declines in staple crop production across several of these regions within one to two growing seasons.

The FAO has urged all parties to ensure the unimpeded flow of agricultural commodities through critical waterways, framing access to fertilizers as inseparable from the broader right to food security. Gulf states, led by Qatar, have a direct economic and diplomatic stake in ensuring that maritime routes remain open for commerce.